In a pivotal moment one year ago, the tragic death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman, in police custody triggered a wave of protests that shook Iran’s hardline government, presenting one of the most significant challenges to its rule in decades.
Amini’s arrest, allegedly for not wearing her hijab properly as mandated by Iran’s conservative Islamic Republic, ended in her untimely death, reportedly due to multiple blows to the head. The Iranian authorities insisted on her demise being attributed to a heart attack, but her family, alongside countless Iranians, accused the government of a cover-up.
What began as protests centered on women’s rights swiftly evolved into a demand for the overthrow of the entire Iranian regime. These demonstrations led to harsh government crackdowns, frequent internet blackouts, thousands of arrests, and several executions.
However, the hopes of many for a full-scale popular revolution that would break the regime’s grip on power were not realized; instead, repression intensified. Nevertheless, various forms of resistance persist among the Iranian populace.
“One year later, Iranian protesters continue to defy the odds, risking their lives to challenge the Islamic Republic,” remarked Behnam ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.
“Iran’s violent suppression of protestors was coupled with the regime’s weaponization of cyberspace and the judiciary,” he noted, “all in a futile attempt to demoralize Iranians.”
CNBC has reached out to the Iranian foreign ministry for comment and is awaiting a response.
Reports suggest that in the months following the protests, arrests, surveillance, and executions have escalated. Iranian authorities have intensified their pressure on peaceful dissidents in the lead-up to the anniversary of Amini’s death, as documented by Human Rights Watch in a report from mid-August. The independent women’s rights group, Bidarzani, reported home raids by Iranian security forces resulting in the arrests of several women’s rights activists and lawyers.
Saleh Nikbakht, the lawyer representing Amini’s family, faced charges of “propaganda against the state” for his legal work but was released on bail pending a court hearing. Family members and lawyers of executed dissidents have also been detained.
“Iranian authorities are following their standard playbook of applying maximum pressure on peaceful dissidents ahead of the anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s death,” explained Tara Sepehri Far, a senior Iran researcher at Human Rights Watch. “The arbitrary arrests of a dozen activists aim to stifle popular discontent with ongoing impunity and rights violations.”
Despite the state’s heavy-handed tactics, women in various parts of Iran continue to defy the hijab requirement, with photos and videos showing them in public without headscarves.
“You can tell the big change is women aren’t backing down, and we are letting our hair blow in the wind,” said an Iranian woman who spoke anonymously for her safety while visiting family in Tehran.
However, women who challenge the hijab mandate still face significant risks, including physical attacks, fines, and arrest. Some businesses choose to defy government orders and welcome female customers without headscarves as a show of solidarity with these women.
Sanam Vakil, director of the MENA program at Chatham House, noted that while a full-blown revolution has not materialized, societal conditions have shifted.
“What I really see happening inside Iran is, despite significant repression, regular crackdowns, surveillance, and pressure on Iranian individuals and society writ large… we are seeing a regular pattern of protests that I think are important and show resistance,” Vakil explained. These protests extend beyond the anti-hijab movement and include demonstrations against issues such as water shortages, high inflation, and economic pressures.
Despite vocal condemnation by Iranian authorities of the Mahsa Amini protests, they appear concerned about potential unrest as the anniversary of her death approaches.
Meanwhile, “you now regularly see people on the streets of Tehran and other cities not just without hijab but in tank tops,” said Iranian historian and analyst Arash Azizi. However, he cautioned that these changes are far from being consolidated achievements.
Iran’s government has recently imposed stricter hijab rules, with moral security police patrolling the streets. Nevertheless, the regime has not shown any signs of making concessions.
Azizi emphasized that without political organization and leadership, these protests are unlikely to result in political change, stating, “Iranians continue to lack an organized alternative to the regime.”
However, he noted, “even the regime’s own strategists admit that none of the fundamental problems that have led to constant protests since 2017 have been solved.” As the regime’s economy falters and its oppressive apparatus maintains control over Iranian lives, resistance persists.