Former President Donald Trump maintains a commanding lead in national polls for the Republican presidential primary, with a substantial 40-point margin over his closest rival, Ron DeSantis, the Governor of Florida, who holds a 13.8% polling average, according to data from FiveThirtyEight.
Trump and DeSantis are the only two candidates entering the second GOP debate with double-digit national polling averages. Since Trump has chosen not to participate in the debates, DeSantis will take center stage, being the candidate with the highest polling numbers.
Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley are tied for third place in national polling averages at 6.3%.
Former Vice President Mike Pence comes in fifth place with a national polling average of 4.6%. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott both poll just below 3%, while North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum has a polling average of 0.9%.
Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, who missed the qualification for the second GOP debate after participating in the first, also holds a polling average below 1%. Former U.S. Representative Will Hurd of Texas, who did not qualify for either debate, lags behind Hutchinson.
In tonight’s Republican presidential debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, seven candidates will participate, a smaller field compared to the first debate in Wisconsin. With fewer candidates on stage, there will be more opportunities for breakthrough moments.
Here is an alphabetical overview of the seven candidates participating in tonight’s debate:
- Doug Burgum (67): Serving as the governor of North Dakota since 2017, Burgum previously worked in the software industry. His national polling average is around 1%.
- Chris Christie (61): Former New Jersey Governor from 2010 to 2018, Christie is known for his frequent criticism of former President Donald Trump. He currently polls just under 3%.
- Ron DeSantis (45): Governor of Florida since 2019 and a former U.S. Representative, DeSantis is considered one of Trump’s top GOP rivals. He is polling second among the candidates.
- Nikki Haley (51): A former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and governor of South Carolina, Haley emphasizes her foreign relations experience and has raised significant campaign funds.
- Mike Pence (64): Seeking the presidency after serving as Trump’s vice president, Pence has faced criticism for his handling of the 2020 election results. He currently polls just over 4%.
- Vivek Ramaswamy (38): The youngest GOP candidate, Ramaswamy lacks political experience but has drawn comparisons to Trump in his campaign. He saw a rise in polls after his first debate appearance.
- Tim Scott (58): Serving as South Carolina’s junior senator since 2013, Scott emphasizes “commonsense” solutions and aims to protect America and create opportunities as president.
In the absence of Trump, who remains the dominant frontrunner in the 2024 GOP presidential race, DeSantis takes the spotlight tonight. Polls indicate that more than 55% of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, while 48% feel unfavorably about DeSantis. Both Trump and DeSantis have favorability ratings around 41%, mirroring the similar favorability ratings of President Joe Biden.
Stay tuned for updates on the debate and the evolving landscape of the 2024 Republican primary race.