Calls for Democrats to consider alternatives to President Biden ahead of the next election are gaining momentum. As the first primary contests draw nearer, the question arises: Is it too late for them to find a viable replacement? While time is running out, it’s not impossible.
Biden could potentially face a significant primary challenge or make the historic decision to step down. Either path would be unprecedented in modern politics.
The Democratic Primary Democrats have an established process for selecting a presidential nominee—the primary. From January to June of the next year, Democrat voters will cast their ballots to choose their candidate. Currently, Biden faces competition from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson, though polling indicates that Democrat voters are not enthusiastic about them.
To replace Biden, a well-known candidate with broad appeal to the Democratic base must emerge. One likely contender is California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has made strides in red states, advocated for a national referendum on guns, and challenged Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to a debate on Fox News. Reports suggest that Biden’s inner circle increasingly views Newsom as a nuisance, although advisors publicly consider him a top surrogate.
Rumors are also swirling around Michigan’s popular governor, Gretchen Whitmer, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who ran for president in 2020 on a platform of generational change, maintains a high profile in the Biden cabinet.
Candidates considering a challenge must act soon to meet filing deadlines, with Nevada having the earliest deadline on October 15, just a month away. Fourteen more states have filing deadlines before the year’s end. The longer they wait, the fewer nominating delegates they can secure. Nevada, being one of the earliest primary states, holds significant sway in shaping the race.
While declaring candidacy is a quick process, launching a viable presidential campaign involves courting donors, hiring staff, developing policies, messaging, and a winning strategy. Media reporting often precedes official announcements, and as of now, there is no notable candidate preparing to enter the race.
In the modern era, an incumbent president has never lost his party’s nomination when running for a second term.
The Democratic National Convention Biden’s fate also lies in his own hands. While he’s the frontrunner for the nomination, he can choose to step down at any point, with the ideal timing being during the Democratic National Convention in August. Delegates are allocated to candidates during the earlier primaries, but the presidential candidate isn’t officially elected until the convention.
If Biden, who has secured a majority of delegates, wishes to withdraw, he could use a convention speech to endorse another candidate. Under Democratic Party rules, pledged delegates are not bound to vote for the candidate they represent but are instructed to “reflect the sentiments of those who elected them,” making Biden’s endorsement highly influential.
If multiple candidates are in contention, and a majority align with Biden’s choice, that candidate becomes the Democratic presidential nominee, resembling a contested convention. If Biden’s influence doesn’t secure a majority, and no candidate wins on the first convention ballot, a brokered convention would ensue. Delegates would be free from their commitments, and party leaders and lawmakers would seek to persuade them to support their preferred candidate.
Multiple rounds of voting would take place until one candidate secures a majority. A brokered convention would lead to chaos and portray disunity within the Democratic Party, coming less than three months before the general election.
Contested and brokered conventions are rare in modern politics, making a second Biden run in 2024 the most likely scenario. Any candidate seeking to change this outcome must act promptly and acknowledge the unprecedented challenges they face.