Xeeis — The dynamics of a potential 2024 rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump seem to defy traditional expectations of presidential reelection bids. Recent polling data suggests that this hypothetical contest might be more of a referendum on Trump than on Biden. Here’s an overview of the key findings:
- Trump’s Strong Influence: In a recent poll, when registered voters were asked about their preference between Biden and Trump, 62% of Trump supporters indicated that their choice was primarily a show of support for Trump. In contrast, 64% of Biden supporters said their choice was largely a vote against Trump. This stark contrast breaks past election patterns.
- Shift from Past Elections: In previous elections, voters tended to focus on the incumbent’s performance. However, exit polls from the last election when Trump was the incumbent and Biden was the challenger showed that 54% of voters cited Trump as the bigger factor in their vote. This suggests a shift in how voters perceive the candidates.
- Voter Sentiments: Biden’s supporters seem less enthusiastic about his policy record and leadership abilities, with only slightly more than half crediting him with improving the country’s economic conditions and inspiring confidence. On the other hand, Trump’s supporters hold broadly positive views of him and largely view the charges against him as evidence of political abuse by the justice system.
- Midterm Election Parallel: The 2024 election might resemble the pattern seen in the 2022 midterms. Traditionally, midterm elections are driven by a backlash against the party in power, but last year’s midterms saw discontent with GOP-driven policies and significant influence from Trump even though he was not on the ballot.
Breaking Down the Electorate:
- The electorate in a hypothetical Biden-Trump rematch can be divided into four blocs based on their motivations:
- Pro-Trump voters (29% of the potential electorate) overwhelmingly support Trump and view him favorably, with 70% believing that the criminal charges against him have no relevance to his fitness for office.
- Anti-Trump voters (30% of the potential electorate) support Biden primarily because of their strong disapproval of Trump, even though some express misgivings about Biden’s leadership.
- Anti-Biden voters (18% of the potential electorate) support Trump largely due to their distaste for Biden, but they have more mixed views of Trump and are more likely to be younger and college-educated.
- Pro-Biden voters (16% of the potential electorate) are highly positive toward Biden’s job performance and are relatively convinced of his competence. This group is older, predominantly Democrat, and includes more voters of color.
Would Another Republican Fare Differently?
While Trump remains a polarizing figure, hypothetical matchups between Biden and other top GOP contenders show a similar deadlock in the polls. Biden runs several points behind former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, but voters across the spectrum are influenced by broader antipathy toward the opposing party.
In conclusion, if a 2024 Trump-Biden rematch materializes, it appears that the election may revolve more around voters’ feelings about Trump than their assessment of Biden’s performance. This shift in focus could have significant implications for the campaign and election dynamics.