Israel experienced a devastating attack on Saturday, as Hamas militants launched thousands of rockets from Gaza and infiltrated Israeli towns, resulting in hundreds of casualties and the taking of hostages, both military and civilian. The severity of the assault raises concerns about a potential Israeli ground invasion in Gaza, alongside the ongoing airstrikes, which could lead to a protracted and bloody conflict with significant casualties, particularly among Palestinians.
The death toll on both sides has already reached into the hundreds, with thousands of injuries in Gaza due to airstrikes and in southern Israel from rocket attacks and clashes. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) retaliated swiftly following the initial invasion, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu officially declared war against Hamas on Sunday. The situation is poised to escalate, given the history of conflicts between Israel and Gaza and the heightened rhetoric from Netanyahu.
“In a way, this is our 9/11,” remarked IDF spokesperson Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, emphasizing the gravity of the situation. Disturbing videos have surfaced depicting casualties among Israelis, along with Israeli civilians being captured by Hamas militants, presumably for detention in Gaza. While some hostages near the Gaza border have been freed, many remain in captivity, and some are feared dead.
Netanyahu has urged Gazans to leave the territory and threatened to turn it into “a deserted island.” Consequently, many civilians have sought refuge in schools operated by the UN agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA), despite some of these facilities being damaged by Israeli airstrikes.
Israel has a history of engaging in wars against Palestinians and Arab nations, with ground operations in Gaza, most recently in 2014. Israel’s military strategy involves using disproportionate force in Gaza as a deterrent, but this approach has not led to lasting security improvements, curbed Hamas’s capacity to attack Israel, or created room for political negotiations toward a peaceful resolution.
The odds of a ground invasion in Gaza are uncertain, but experts suggest the likelihood is higher compared to previous rounds of violence. Khaled Elgindy, director of the Middle East Institute’s Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, acknowledges the possibility. In the past, reports of imminent ground invasions have sometimes proven inaccurate or disinformation spread by the Israeli military. However, the current circumstances and public sentiment in Israel make a ground invasion more likely.
A ground invasion would likely result in significant infrastructure damage and heavy civilian casualties in Gaza, as witnessed in previous incursions. The 2014 conflict alone led to over 2,200 Palestinian deaths, including many civilians, and 73 Israelis killed. Israel’s asymmetric response aims to serve as a deterrent, but eliminating Hamas entirely could entail even greater risks, such as the emergence of more radical groups or Israel assuming governance over the territory.
The coming weeks are uncertain, but they are expected to be marked by bloodshed. UN agencies have called on both sides to minimize civilian casualties, but reports of civilian deaths have already emerged on both sides. Israel will likely focus on securing its villages and towns, locating Hamas leadership, and determining the number and whereabouts of hostages.
The international community, including the US, has voiced unwavering support for Israel and is providing additional military assistance. The US is sending military equipment, including munitions, and deploying the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group to the Eastern Mediterranean, along with additional fighter aircraft squadrons in the region.
Despite facing overwhelming military power from Israel and the US, Hamas has not indicated a willingness to back down. The group may be prepared for a protracted conflict, posing a significant challenge to Israel’s military capabilities. While the situation remains fluid, one thing is clear: Israel is not currently inclined toward de-escalation.
The days ahead hold great uncertainty and apprehension, as the region grapples with the consequences of this devastating conflict.