In a recent analysis, a prominent US think tank has praised Ukraine’s decision to abandon Western-backed plans for a large-scale frontal assault against heavily fortified Russian defenses. Instead, Ukraine has adopted a more agile approach, deploying smaller units to engage their entrenched adversary effectively. Analyst Nataliya Bugayova, in her assessment published by the Institute for the Study of War, called for greater faith in Ukraine’s capabilities.
Bugayova stated, “The Ukrainian forces have exhibited the adaptability of successful militaries, recognizing the realities of Russian defenses much faster than Western policymakers, who initially expected a rapid Ukrainian breakthrough.”
This sentiment is shared by a US veteran on the ground, who, while training Ukrainian forces, emphasized that applying American military doctrine in this context would prove challenging.
Earlier this summer, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive aimed at breaching Russia’s formidable defenses in eastern and southern Ukraine. Initially, their tactics mirrored those learned during training with NATO armies, involving large-scale group attacks and intricate maneuvers. However, after suffering heavy casualties, Ukraine shifted its approach to familiar tactics, utilizing smaller groups supported by precision artillery strikes.
Bugayova had previously criticized the NATO approach, asserting, “The large-scale mechanized breaches that NATO trained Ukraine’s counteroffensive brigades to execute are incredibly difficult and not the only viable option for Ukrainian forces.” She argued that Ukraine was not failing due to its choice of different tactics.
While some Western military analysts questioned Ukraine’s return to its traditional methods and feared the prolonged conflict, recent developments indicate otherwise. Ukraine has begun making gradual yet significant gains in its counteroffensive, which Bugayova attributes to its reliance on tried-and-tested tactics.
“Ukraine’s ingenuity is yielding results,” she wrote. “The country continues to liberate its territory and people, steadily breaking through an incredibly formidable Russian prepared defense, with the advance now progressing on two fronts.”
Nonetheless, some analysts remain skeptical about the potential for a decisive outcome in the near future. Finnish military analyst Emil Kastehelmi noted that Russian defensive lines appeared to be “bending rather than breaking” in the breached areas.